Into Europe and German name buying forced USD/CHF to rally but selling into strength from Spec A/C's was noted ahead of the Swiss data. As a result the price stayed close to the 1.2125 session low but the near expectation Swiss price data forced a quick turn around from the speculative community. The pair bounced and US investment house offers into 1.2150/55 have tried to limit the topside.
However, trading printed 1.2160 before buying momentum waned and spot is now consolidating the move higher. Technically, a break and close above 1.2155 should alleviate any recent downward short-term pressure, according to a recent research note from a quality German name. Any such move would put a base in the pair around 1.1950/2050 in the medium-term and transfer risk to the topside.
Over in IFR, they feel that the break of the 38.2% Fibo at 1.2156 (of the sell-off from 1.2357 (March 9th) to 1.2031 (March 16th)) will be less significant than the 10-Day moving average line at 1.2191 and the 50% Fibo of the same move at 1.2194. Also above the 61.8% resistance at 1.2232 will be eyed for a full retracement.
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