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Thursday, March 22, 2007

USD/JPY: Offers Remain at 118.00 But Stops Building Above

Traders are hearing reports of real money selling on USD/JPY and EUR/JPY today but offsetting that has been aggressive AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY and CAD/JPY buying. Japanese banks report that USD/JPY remains very bid, though offers are at 118.00 with exporter interest staggered up to 118.50.

Also noted by Japanese accounts are reports that exporters are getting very nervous with the latest bout of USD/JPY and JPY cross strength and are now starting to look to lift cover, for fear that another bout of JPY weakness will emerge. Only Tuesday, long-yields on JGBs dropped to the lowest in a year following the BOJ statement, further underpinning the carry trade bias.

In addition, last night the Japanese government and MOF released the latest big company mood index which declined during the Jan-Mar period with companies looking for a decline in Capex. Stops are growing above 118.00 with stops at 118.20 & 118.30 reported on USD/JPY. USD/JPY currently trades at 117.73/75.

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