[Gold] has come to within less than $5 of retesting last week's lows with today's break. Despite weakness the past few days, inside week structure remains in place as gold stays near the low end of the nearly $60 range in place since the late February break commenced. Monthly supports are at $632.50-635.00 for Apr gold; weekly supports are a bit lower at $627-29 in the event of a larger move.
The failure to close above 40-day moving averages (now $659) at the recent corrective high on Mar 9 has also left 200-day averages at $634.50 as a target. Bottom line, don"t be surprised to see the $627-35 band tested.
In [oil], the supply data is awaited but the setup into the numbers is not too constructive following the three-day slump that preceded today's session. 40- and 50-day moving averages at $58.43-72 are now closest resistance; Apr futures appear headed towards a 50% retracement of range since prices bottomed in mid-January at $57.08 on any new selling.
Intraday, daily and weekly charts show overlapping resistance on any firm bounce in the $59.00-60.50 zone. Daily Elliott wave counts do not endorse bottom picking here, and monthly trends stay bearish below $60.80-90.
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