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Friday, March 23, 2007

US TECHS: Commodities Outlook; Gold and Oil

Apr [gold] tapped against major resistance on daily and weekly charts yesterday and just missed reaching 62% retracements at $670. With range only a shade over $15 this week, projected support and resistance levels into next week are also narrow, currently showing $649-668 as the band that should initially hold prices.

Chart alignment remains constructive on weeklies and monthlies, though a quick recovery is needed to $661.50 or better to keep daily bull trends in place into next week. Larger upside targets are near $680. Intraday resistance is currently at $662-64 and falling.

In [oil], follow-through strength is just below weekly resistance at $62.80-90, the market already set to shift to neutral from bearish on that time frame. The market may finally exit its long-bearish monthly trend if firm prices are sustained through month's end. Interestingly, Trend Intensity has not yet been triggered bullishly, even with today's gains.

The market is above 200-day moving averages on continuous charts at $61.47, but still well below that measure on the May contract at $64.37. Range highs set earlier this month at $63.75 are a very important barrier to get past, and given recent patterns, a test is expected.

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