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Wednesday, March 28, 2007

Swiss Outlook (28th March 2007)

In the wake of the robust Swiss KoF numbers and the Franc has been underpinned. Economists had opted for a 1.83 reading but with February also revised higher (from 1.79 to 1.81) the latest Leading Indicator has surged to hit 1.90. As a result of these latest economic offerings and the mountain economy can expect further tightening in monetary policy into Q2 with a further 25bps hike now expected in mid-June from the SNB.

An upside surprise in the barometer was always likely to support the Franc dip and sellers in USD/CHF have since emerged to help weigh on spot. A return towards 1.2100 support is now looked for ahead of the North American open with stops still noted in play on any break into the 1.2090's. However, both US Durable Goods and Bernanke comments sit on the horizon for the Dollar.

Domestic players now look to the Swiss government's quarterly consumer sentiment forecasts, due Thursday at 05:45 GMT, to help support the CHF on dips. Both the solid UBS numbers and the robust KoF headlines should keep the market buoyant over potential official revisions.

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