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Tuesday, March 27, 2007

Swiss Outlook (27th March 2007)

Spot USD/CHF opened NY around 1.2220 then got belted on weak US new home sales data which knocked the pair down to 1.2217 at the low. Techies were eyeing this level as support, as it represented the lows from Friday, and also coincided with a support line on the hourly charts, and the two together repelled the onslaught.

Profit-taking from momentum and leveraged accounts bounced the pair back to 1.2160, and the pair traded in an apprehensive 40-60 range for the remainder of the session, and closed at 1.2155. Markets are becoming increasingly more sensitive to the escalation in tensions with Iran over the British navy personnel who are being held hostage, as well as increased rhetoric over the nuclear program, following the UN's tougher stance on sanctions, which is why USD/CHF led the pack down.

EUR/CHF was like the dog being wagged by the tail today, as for once USD/CHF flow overwhelmed EUR/CHF flow. The sharp drop in USD/CHF knocked the pair down to 1.6173 at the low, however a steady demand ground the pair higher to close just above 1.6200, despite heavy overnight sell orders at that level.

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