It remains to be seen if the market has the appetite for another payroll number from the US as the year nears its close. Thursday's ADP data has set the stage for an upward surprise in today's data but so far there has been little sign of market factoring for a good number.
The early release of German trade numbers surprised with a new record surplus in October. The EUR 17.2 bln surplus compares with a September balance of EUR 15 bln and market expectations of a narrowing of the trade gap to EUR 13.4 bln. German data dominated the early session with the positive traded followed by poor industrial production. The 1.4% fall in output contrasted with the market's +0.5% m/m forecast. Through all the data releases the EUR was unmoved.
A slight bull bias intraday but a tight 1.3270-1.3290 range holds. For the US data , the market is looking for a number around 110,000 for the November payrolls. Next up, German October industrial production with a 0.5% rise expected on the month. EUR/USD looks like 1.3280 to 1.3300 with good bids reported at 1.3250 and offers in the 1.3320-30 area.
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