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Tuesday, December 05, 2006

Sterling Outlook (5th December 2006)

Good size Japanese selling of GBP/JPY was seen from the London open, re: a slated Thursday Gilt redemption. The cumulative size of that GBP/JPY selling was estimated at between GBP 500mn to GBP 1bn. The above-mentioned GBP/JPY selling helped depress GBP/USD to an intra-day low a pip shy of 1.9734 (yesterday's NY session base).

The pound also suffered in early European trade on the back of the continent's absorption of the BRC's 00:01GMT disclosure that annualized UK like-for-like retail sales rose by just 0.5% in November an eight-month low. 1.9822 was today's Asian session peak, notched pre-00:01GMT. 1.9849 was last Friday's 14-year high. The 09:30GMT unveiling of November's better-than-expected UK service sector PMI has helped to keep sterling above 1.9735.

Bids are tipped at 1.9730, 1.9720, and 1.9700. Some stops reportedly reside below 1.9700. Further stops are touted sub-1.9690. Today's key US event risk is November's ISM non-manufacturing index, due at
15:00GMT. Forecast: 56.0, from 57.1.

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