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Thursday, December 07, 2006

Sterling Outlook (7th December 2006)

The MPC is expected to keep the UK base rate at 5.0% at 12:00GMT. Minutes from this week's meeting will be published on December 20. Japan Tobacco's takeover approach for GBP 6.4bn-valued Gallaher (FT website), Rank's $965mn sale of the Hard Rock Cafe to the Seminole Tribe of Florida (Daily Telegraph website), plus talk of Spanish or US interest to acquire Barclays (Reuters), is helping underpin the pound.

The Halifax's claim that UK house prices rose by another 1.7% last month is also GBP-supportive. GBP/USD resistance levels include 1.9712, 1.9739, 1.9808, 1.9822, and 1.9849 (last Friday's 14-year high). The almost mythical 2.00 level is also still being mentioned in dispatches. 1.9712 was yesterday's rebound rally high from the post-ADP employment report six-day low of 1.9617.

Supra-national demand helped fuel that recovery rally. 1.9648 was today's Asian session base. Weekly US jobless claims will be revealed at 13:30GMT. Forecast: 325k. US October consumer credit data ensues at 20:00GMT. Growth of $4.0bn is forecast. November's US employment report is due tomorrow.

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