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Monday, December 04, 2006

Swiss Outlook (4th December 2006)

USD/CHF opened NY at 1.1990, flirting with the possibility of a minor rally to close the week following lower than expected Swiss GDP figures (Q3 +0.4% Q/Q & +2.4% Y/Y) casting some doubt over what 2007 will bring.

However, in what has become a data destruction derby for the dollar, the final numbers for the week once again revealed an alarming picture of slowing economic activity that is starting to raise the "R" word. Construction spending down 1%, and the ISM below 50 (49.5) tossed more red meat to the bears, and they feasted on the beleaguered buck, banging it down to a new 2006 low of 1.1901. Big stops below 1.1900 were tempting, but the figure held, prompting barrier defence talk. Swissy, weak on the crosses struggled back up to 1.1955 at the European close, and drifted back to 1.1930 at the close.

Swissy was weak against GBP, EUR, and JPY, closing at 2.3625 1.5907, and 9670 respectively, with a late GBP surge doing much of the damage. This weakness carried over to NZD/CHF which enjoyed a late pop to 0.8220 and closed at 0.8205. Both AUD & CAD foundered and closed near their lows - 0.9408 & 1.0420.

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