[ISM Index (Nov)] IFR sees the ISM index rising to 52.2 in November from 51.2 in October. Such a reading would be a touch below the 3-month average of 52.9.
The overall outlook for the manufacturing sector remains modestly positive but the slippage in the ISM new orders index in October suggests the pipeline is not all that robust. Chicago PMI captured this as well, though we think much of that weakness (49.9) owes to autos.
In the national index, inventories are also shrinking, albeit only slightly suggesting expectations for increased demand are not there. The employment index will provide some indication of factory payrolls ahead of the November employment report.
Other data today include the monthly strike report from the BLS, October construction spending and November vehicle sales. ISM should take the starring role, however, especially as many fear a dip below 50 (i.e., contraction). I'm ready to call for that, though the deceleration in factory activity has been going on for more than two years. A dip or two below 50 should not carry the economy into a recession.
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