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Wednesday, January 03, 2007

Euro Outlook (3rd January 2007)

Sub-1.3250 stops were removed by the late European dip in EUR/USD. Early European trading saw the topside stay in focus but with solid standing supply trailing from 1.3285 the topside always looked limited. In the wake of the leaked German jobless data and EUR/USD was sold with the option buying into 1.3265 (linked to the large strike at the price set to expire at the 15:00 GMT NY cut-off) stalling the move before stops forced the run to 1.3219.

Looking ahead, US data is set to come thick and fast into the week-end (culminating in the US employment data on Friday) and this should keep the Dollar on its toes and EUR/USD choppy inside the previous ranges. Some see a 50.0 ISM reading as "a little on the optimistic side" but never-the-less speculation of a rebound is doing the rounds in some circles.

Below, a more sensible consensus is seen around 49.9 at 15:00 GMT for the December headline, up from the previous 49.5 previous. Following this, the 19:00 GMT release of the latest FOMC Minutes will be the focus of the broader market with the bulk of commentators looking for further data-dependence from Bernanke & Co.

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