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Friday, October 06, 2006

EUR/USD: Back At 1.2675-80 After Brief Data Reaction

The market has had little appetite to push the EUR away from a tight range around a 1.2675 pivot point. Asia based at 1.2677 and Europe has held above 1.2677. A much better than expected showing for German manufacturing orders failed to inspire more than a 10-pip bounce and the market has since reverted to form as the afternoon data release from the US hijacks price action. Thursday's ECB action and press call have not provided support for the EUR with the hike already heavily factored and the Trichet views providing few clues as to the extent of further rate hikes. A large 1.2600-1.2850 double no touch option play might divert late European attention away from the NFP but much of the market will be squared off by then as the US looks to a long weekend.

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