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Friday, October 06, 2006

Swiss Outlook (6th October 2006)

USD/CHF slightly overshot yesterday's 1.2546 highs, topping out at 1.2548, but quickly stumbled. Near-term dealers will focus on the double top left on the intraday charts. A drop below 1.2480/85 support will open up a decline to the 1.2420 area. US interest rates ticked up the day before the US employment report after a 17k drop in jobless claims and a very strong string of chain store sales reports. The market looks for a rise in the neighborhood of 125k new jobs on Friday.

The SNB's Hildebrand spoke this morning and said that after a period of low EUR/CHF volatility these last two years, there is no guarantee of volatility staying low in the future. A slowdown in global growth after a period of prosperity could increase forex volatility, he said. Elsewhere, the KOF upped its 2006 & 2007 growth outlook (2006 from +2.1% to +2.6%, 07 to +2.1% from +1.9%) The Swiss government sees 2.7% and 1.7%. Swiss unemployment is due tomorrow at 05:45 GMT; seen steady at 3.1%.

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