US ECON: CME Derivatives Auction Paring Employment Gains

In the fourth (of five) economic derivatives auctions relating to Friday's payroll count, the implied market forecast (IMF) has fallen again. The IMF on Tuesday morning was 122k. That rose to 124k on Wednesday afternoon but fell to 120k Thursday morning. As of the auction close (20:00), the IMF was 115k.

For the August survey, the implied market forecast in the final CME auction predicted a 98k payroll gain while the BLS actual was 128k. The 30k delta was far larger than the 3k miss in the IFR median (125k). So far this year, the average CME miss is 31.3k while the average IFR consensus miss is 31.8k.