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Thursday, January 04, 2007

Euro Outlook (4th January 2007)

The EUR/USD opened around 1.3165 after longs built up on Tuesday hit the exits using the better than expected US ISM and the slide in the gold price as the excuse to pare back. The EUR/USD eased to 1.3159 in early Asia when EUR/JPY selling took the cross down to 157.01, but the EUR/JPY reversed higher to 157.32 in the afternoon and helped the EUR/USD push to a session high of 1.3178.

The EUR/USD settled between 1.3170/80 for the balance of the very quiet session. Sentiment towards the EUR/USD has turned from very bullish to neutral in the past 24 hours. The inability to break above 1.3300 and a divergence of views on the state of the US economy is suggesting that the EUR/USD might stay between 1.3100/1.3300 until the US payroll data is released on Friday.

There are stops below 1.3140, but central bank bids are expected to emerge around 1.3100. There is talk that a central bank was on the offer ahead of 1.3300 so it will take something special to push the EUR/USD in either direction in the immediate-term at least. EZ PMI is out later.

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