[Gold] is very firm today, extending its daily bull trend and moving up within reach of major daily and weekly resistance in the $648-49.50 band. With the rally, the possibility of a H&S top is not overruled, but there is no longer equality between the two shoulders after the push past $644. If Dec 1 peaks at $657.30 are approached, the likelihood of a topping pattern will diminish.
For the record, monthly resistance is at $652.50, then $658-660. Using MACD as a proxy for momentum, the market has only reached positive readings today after slipping into negative territory on Dec 18. This means that inability to sustain the rally will lead to a bearish divergence setup, consistent with the H&S notion.
In [oil], the market is providing a sobering reminder that weekly and monthly bear trends are alive and well, nowhere close to being neutralized. A rally of over $3 from present levels would be required to threaten either trend. Intraday resistance started the day at $60.50 and has now slipped to $59.70-60.00, unable to keep pace with the market's decline.
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