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Friday, March 09, 2007

Euro Outlook (9th March 2007)

Into North American trading and the Dollar is poised to rally but factors may just conspire against the US unit ahead of the weekend. Dealers remain pessimistic ahead of the 13:30 GMT February US Employment numbers with data around the 100K mark doing the rounds the unveiling is generally not expected to be USD supportive.

Add to the risk-profile the January trade data (also set for release at 13:30 GMT) and EUR/USD has retained a "buy on dips" outlook. Dips back to the 21-Day moving average line and the daily low from yesterday (1.3118) are seen to offer value with 1.3165 to 1.3175 seen as the initial barrier to further Euro strength. 1.3165 offers trail back to official sellers camped in the 1.3175/80 area while above technical accounts look to the 61.8% Fibo of 1.3259 to 1.3073 at 1.3188.

This level is seen as the key intraday topside trigger while on the downside a break below 1.3100 will see 1.3073 come into view with 1.3040/50 then eyed. Following the early data the attention will turn to the Bies, Lacker and Kohn comments due after the European close.

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