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Monday, March 05, 2007

Sterling Outlook (5th March 2007)

Cable tripped stops below 1.9260 in early European trade, as GBP/JPY came under fresh selling pressure. A prior torrent of GBP/JPY selling was attributed as the cause of cable's Asian session slump from 1.9448 to 1.9260 (Jan 8 low). The exiting of long positions by Japanese retail investors and US model funds was blamed for that cross selling.

1.9213 defines the 15-week low-to-date. Touted bear targets/support points below include 1.9200, 1.9180, 1.9150, 1.9130, and 1.9100. On the topside: 1.9260 is now a resistance level. The probability of the BoE MPC hiking the UK base rate by another 25bp to 5.5% as early as this Thursday has lessened on the back of February's disappointing UK service sector PMI.

M&A-wise: UK residential estate agency Countrywide has agreed to be acquired by US private equity group Apollo Advisors for GBP 1.0bn (FT website). February's US ISM non-manufacturing index will be disclosed at 15:00GMT. Forecast: 57.3, from 59.0 in January.

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