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Wednesday, March 07, 2007

US TECHS: Commodities Outlook; Gold and Oil

[Gold] was flat on the week at yesterday's close, and current small gains leave it in position to exit bearish daily trends above $645 Apr at today's settle. Keeping an eye on former monthly supports, now resistance at $649.50-52.00 as a key pivot zone. Projected resistance into next week is $657-62, that band shifting higher on each new high this week.

Though yesterday's advance was much less robust than what occurred in equities, the pattern was similar, with both markets setting bullish outside-day-up structure. No market gets quickly past the kind of break experienced last week, though, and despite daily barriers at $652.50-53.00 currently targeted, 40-day averages at $656 aren't far behind.

In [oil], the market can shift to a bearish trend on daily models today below $60.80 Apr at the close, still impacted by Monday's sizable break. Trend Intensity has not been triggered either here or in gold. $62 remains a pivotal number for Apr futures, marking both 100-day moving averages, a weekly trendline and the base of a large band of activity slightly larger than what transpired during the last quarter of 2006.

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