European trading saw EUR/USD supported after the overnight fresh all-time highs in EUR/JPY and EUR/CHF. Offers into 1.3470/80 were tested but stood firm to force a pre-EZ data pullback to 1.3440 support. Looking ahead, the impending ECB verdict (11:45 GMT) and the 14:00 GMT expiry of more 1.3500 KO options should weigh on the price intraday.
Further protection of the above options is expected and the European Central Bank is forecast to leave rates on hold at 3.75%. However, if the ECB President holds a hawkish tome at his accompanying 12:30 GMT conference then spot could bounce back for a re-test of the official sales into 1.3480. Yet political pressure is mounting for an halt to the hikes and Trichet may therefore err on the side of caution and rein-in the recent hawkish ECB tone at the press conference.
US data is set for release into NorAm trading with Import and Export numbers for March set for release at 12:30 GMT. Economists in a recent survey forecast a 0.8% rise in imports and a 0.4% increase in exports. Following this March SpendingPulse retail sales data is set for release at 15:00 GMT.
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