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Friday, April 27, 2007

Sterling Outlook (26th April 2007)

Across-the-board USD demand depressed cable to 1.9960 bids late in the London morning. Further GBP/USD bids are tipped into 1.9950, a level at which an exotic option barrier reportedly resides. A 1.9950 option strike rolls off at today's 14:00GMT NY cut. Sell stops are tipped sub-1.9950.

1.9988 (Tuesday's NY session low) is now a rebound resistance level. Upper obstacles include 2.0005 (yesterday's low), 2.0014 (today's Asian session base) and 2.0062 (yesterday's peak). 2.0062 was revisited in early European trade, following the 06:00GMT disclosure of stronger-than-expected UK house price data.

According to the Nationwide: UK house prices have risen by another 0.9% this Month, a 0.6% rise was forecast, and stand 10.2% higher on an annualized basis. Option-related sell interest reportedly helped prevent GBP/USD vaulting 2.0062.

There is speculation that a UK clearer may have to buy GBP in good size on or by Monday (Apr 30), re: a slated dividend payment. US weekly jobless claims will be disclosed at 12:30GMT. Forecast: 330k. BoE MPC member Tucker speaks at 14:05GMT.

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