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Wednesday, April 25, 2007

Euro Outlook (25th April 2007)

The EUR took another step higher from the European open and EUR/USD cleared barriers at 1.3650. The market now has the 1.3667 all time high in its sights and there is talk of further option exotics at 1.3675, 1.3685 and 1.3700. It looked like a Dollar move from the European open with Cable jumping to levels above 2.0050, USD/CHF on the slide and USD/JPY trading lower.

News that RBS was still in the hunt for ABN will also have added support for the Single Currency. A stronger than expected German IFO, 108.6, had little impact with a good number heavily factored. EUR/USD edged up 10 pips to 1.3648 initially then after a brief bout of consolidation edged to new session highs of 1.3659. Initial resistance is at the all time high and then things get a little patchy.

A 2% moving average envelope comes in at 1.3850 and then we are into synthetic territory with 1995 levels at 1.4160 and 1.4535. The 10-day MA provides support at 1.3580 with Monday's 1.3540 the level behind. We look for 1.3620 pullbacks before a move on 1.3700 but consolidation may well frustrate.

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