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Tuesday, April 17, 2007

Swiss Outlook (17th April 2007)

The Asian USD/CHF sell-off from 1.2151 continued into European action despite the impending Swiss data. Stops triggered in the break below 1.2125 (also in EUR/CHF in the push below 1.6420) ahead of the release and spot matched 1.2116 on the robust retail numbers (+4.5% Y/Y). The pair then consolidated for a period before the cable spike higher helped spur further CHF gains.

Bids into 1.2100 are now eyed and the price looks to stab lower. The recent SNB underpinning of the Franc has kept [EUR/CHF] working lower also and bids into 1.6400/05 are now in focus as the cross continues to slip. Technical resistance into 2.4190/4200 in [GBP/CHF] was soon undone as Sterling drove higher on the shock-CPI news.

2.4244 printed as stops fuelled the break into the 2.42's with offers into 2.4250 now stalling further strength. Looking ahead, US CPI data is now eyed by the broader markets to inject the broader directional bias (+0.6% M/M & +0.2% Core). Should the Dollar weaken then the stops below 1.2090 will be eyed while any US unit rebound will see USD/CHF target a return and retest of 1.2150.

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