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Tuesday, April 10, 2007

Swiss Outlook (10th April 2007)

In European action the Franc reacted little to the early news that the unemployment rate had fallen to a 4 1/2 year low. The March data, released earlier by SECO, hit a seasonally adjusted unemployment rate of 2.9%, the lowest since October 2002. USD/CHF continued to pivot 1.22 with 1.2195/2210 the early comfort-zone despite the overnight EUR/CHF rally to a new all-time high at 1.6392.

Options at 1.6400 were eyed but the cross failed to test such levels. Systematic and high frequency sellers sold into the highs in USD/CHF and this combined with the EUR/CHF failure left the downside in view into the NorAm open. EUR/CHF triggered stops amid the fall below 1.6370 support and bids into 1.6350/55 are now attempting to prop while USD/CHF notes stops below 1.2185.

Looking ahead, there is significant US data on the calendar intraday thus the tight ranges could be set to persist with only a break outside of 1.2150/2250 adding short-term momentum. Elsewhere, the Swiss Federal Treasury announced today it was to reopen its 2.0 percent bond maturing in 2016 amid the latest tender.

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