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Thursday, April 19, 2007

Sterling Outlook (19th April 2007)

Tripped stops below 2.0000 helped depress cable to an intra-day low of 1.9986 in early European trade, as risk appetite was reduced prior to the 07:00GMT release of Chinese GDP and CPI data. The rate"s subsequent half-cent+ recovery rally was aided by Eastern European name buying of GBP/JPY.

Further stops are touted sub-1.9980. Bear targets/support points below include 1.9940 (Monday's high), 1.9917 (Jan 23 top) and 1.9882 (Tuesday's low).

Another large 2.0000 option strike rolls off at today's 14:00GMT NY cut, to follow yesterday's cumulative GBP 300mn 2.0000 expiry. Today's 2.0000 strike is reportedly owned by a US investment house.

GBP/USD resistance levels include 2.0050, 2.0074 (Tuesday's top), 2.0095 (today's Asian session peak) and 2.0134 (yesterday's 26-year high). Exotic option barriers are located at 2.0150, 2.0175, 2.0200, 2.0250 and 2.0300+.

US weekly jobless claims are due at 12:30GMT. Forecast: 320k. April's Philly Fed survey index ensues at 16:00GMT. Forecast: 2.0. UK March retail sales figures will be unveiled at 08:30GMT tomorrow.

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