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Wednesday, April 18, 2007

US TECHS: Commodities Outlook; Gold and Oil

Highs set in February on Jun COMEX futures at $699 have not been tackled as the market has treaded water near peaks of the past few days. Uptrends from early April are at $683.50 today and from March are at $677.

Daily trend models could use a $691 close today to retain their bullish bias; Trend Intensity is solidly bullish and less at risk of a neutral shift. $700 remains in the market's sights, with weekly objectives at $705 likely to be seen soon after. Intraday resistance is at $692.50-93.00.

In [oil] (now tracking Jun futures), the correction has returned prices to just above 50-day moving averages at $63.25, with the 38% retracement level from last July to this January coming in just above there at $63.50. Other measuring tools reinforce the $63.50 area as very important support, and the bounce that occurred following the overnight slide of over $1 confirms that view.

With ADX, a trend study, having topped out and Trend Intensity flat the past seven days (through Tuesday), more consolidation is in the works, and the roughly $62-67 zone could well define near-term trading action.

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