With spot USD/CHF confined to a 1.2069/99 range in New York, and the greenback's inability to pop the figure, day traders are reverting to old habits and selling rallies. Whispers that the dollar may be approaching a short term cycle bottom have been filtering into the market, prompting some of the more vulnerable shorts to scale back, however the veteran bears are warm and fuzzy, still in their winter coats, and unless the buck can break 1.2155, they won't even break a sweat.
On the hourly study the dollar looks tired, fast and slow stochastics about to enter negative crosses, support on the hourly chart at 1.2075 being tested, and RSI has stalled at a paltry 67. It is interesting that on the daily study the fast and slow stochastics have crossed positively, with the fast stochastic recommending a buy at yesterday's close (1.2047) and the slow stochastics in the course of crossing today, and so suggesting a buy on close unless something drastic happens between now and then.
The real bears have been in control of the market since last October when the dollar peaked at 1.2775 and are short anywhere between there and 1.2550 (the February highs) and no amount of sabre rattling will dislodge them until USD/CHF break above 1.2285, short term resistance on daily and weekly studies, with 1.2360 looking to be the key. A turn may be in the offing, but it will be a hard slog for USD/CHF with so many willing bears prowling the slopes.
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