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Wednesday, April 11, 2007

Euro Outlook (11th April 2007)

Little has changed over the past 24-hours and EUR/USD still finds itself trapped by fundamentals in the short-term and options in the medium-term. Spot spent the European morning drifting between 1.3415 and 1.3435, echoing the Asian session, as little fresh interest was generated. The lack of data helped this sideways action with bids into 1.3400 still likely to prop on dips with stops only noted below the figure.

On the options front, having erased the 1.3450 barriers yesterday the 1.3500 structures are now being targeted. However, the failure to sustain the drive to 1.3457 yesterday has seen the topside looking equally thick intraday. Looking ahead, Asian central bank supply may have fortified the 1.3460 area but official event-risk is seen on both sides.

The 18:00 GMT release of the latest FOMC Minutes will define the pre-ECB momentum, with the verdict tomorrow not expected to generate as much support for the EUR as the accompanying Trichet press conference. Ahead of the Fed Minutes and Budget data both Bernanke and Lacker are also scheduled to speak.

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