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Friday, April 27, 2007

Swiss Outlook (26th April 2007)

The mixture of profit-taking and broader Dollar buying kept USD/CHF working higher but the 1.21's continue to be eyed. EUR/CHF has been capped into the 1.6440's but fresh all-time highs are eyed on further strength. Looking ahead, the Friday release of US Q1 07 GDP data may be eyed in the longer-term but intraday there is little in the way of key economic unveilings to keep the US unit under pressure.

Weekly jobless data represents the early focus before the 14:00 GMT March Help-Wanted reading. Economists expect a 31 number, unchanged from the February headline. Following this, regional Fed data is set to dominate with the April Kansas survey due at 15:00 GMT and Chicago March Manf. data at 16:00 GMT. Following this a host of Fed officials are set to speak but only further clues over the path for US rates will impact the Dollar.

Domestic dealers look to the Friday release of the KoF Leading Indicator for April. A 2.00 reading still looks a likely outcome, against the previous 1.90 headline, should another robust Swiss barometer be seen. Any such reading could spur more 50bp SNB speculation and as a result keep the Franc supported.

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