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Friday, April 06, 2007

Swiss Outlook (6th April 2007)

USD/CHF extended its recovery overnight, and headed into the US employment report on firm footing, underpinned by a breakout to the topside in EUR/CHF. From 1.2160 ahead of the US employment report, USD/CHF sprinted up to 1.2220 after the data, tripping stops above 1.2212 recent highs in the process.

EUR/CHF benefited from the upbeat USD employment report which saw 180,000 new jobs created in March and 36,000 jobs added to the two prior month's totals. Receding fears of a deep US slowdown should help keep risk appetite highs, helping create additional demand for carry trades in the weeks ahead. EUR/CHF overcame the major resistance at 1.6320 today and extended its gains within pips of 1.6350 before stalling.

Barriers are rumored at that level. Dips from the highs were modest, only to 1.6335 or so in quiet dealing after the US payrolls. USD/CHF has stops in the 1.2235 area in its sights and they look likely to be taken out in Asia on Monday if not erased in thin New York trading Friday.

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