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Thursday, April 19, 2007

Yen Outlook (19th April 2007)

JPY made up further ground as the market favoured risk reduction. The market followed on from yesterday's session, yet saw further JPY gains amid rumours of a near-term rate hike in Japan after good data and speculation of a Chinese rate hike. Fears of much stronger than expected Chinese data spooked the market, yet the GDP release came in just above consensus at 11.1% y/y, while CPI showed 3.3%.

Market participants sold JPY on the release and USD/JPY was able to rally from the 117.60 area up towards 118.00. EUR/JPY rallied sharply amid Japanese bids at 159.60 and reports of good Eastern European demand for EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY and NZD/JPY. AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY posted modest recoveries, with bargain hunters and Japanese margin traders taking advantage of the cheaper levels.

USD/JPY did little to impact the broader market, with prices held close to 117.90 for a large part of the European morning after the recovery. Option strikes at 118.00 and an overhang of offers capped, while the downside elicited support amid JPY cross bid interest and a large Japanese presence towards the 117.60 region.

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