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Friday, April 20, 2007

Swiss Outlook (20th April 2007)

There seems to be no escape for the low yielding Swissie and the return to the carry trade has forced the unit onto the back-foot into the European morning. This comes despite the Dollar hitting fresh multi-year lows against the better paying Euro. Carry trades have come back into favor since the comments late on Thursday from a German official "many are comfortable with Euro strength".

Swiss data has been overlooked as a 25bp Q2 hike from the SNB has largely been priced in and as a result USD/CHF has headed higher with offers into 1.2060/65 soon absorbed. The break into the 1.2070's is reported to have removed stops with 1.2076 printing as these caused a slight liquidity vacuum.

Should the higher levels be cemented then a slow drift towards 1.2090 can be expected with the next big test coming into the 1.2100 area. Against the Euro the Franc has also struggled on fresh CHF shorting. EUR/CHF has broken above 1.6425/30 to hit 1.6436 and the all-time high at 1.6468 should come back into view if the cross can force a break above 1.6450 standing supply.

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