[Gold] has firmed to the upper end of its rising wedge pattern, defined on the top side by a trendline drawn from Mar 9 and Apr 10 highs. That trendline comes in a shade below $690 today. The wedge rises by just under a dollar each day. With the new high for the week, the market is just above weekly targets and a shade below monthly objectives in the $689.50-692.50 zone.
The $700 region was not broken past in late Feb after three tries, which culminated in a near-$60 break. Momentum should be hard to maintain, and a probable bearish divergence pattern is in the making currently, with buying off the lows not as strong as that which led to late Feb peaks. The rising wedge and approach of monthly technical targets makes us reluctant to chase this market, expecting a reaction.
With mid-month nearly here, inside month structure is in place for [oil]. An unchanged close today is needed to retain weekly bull status on trading models; monthlies turned neutral (from bearish) at the end of March. Daily trends are also neutral. Even hourly momentum readings are neutral, having recovered from extreme oversold levels that bottomed out on Tuesday.
Good intraday supports are in the $62.50-63.00 region today. With prices near midrange levels of recent trading, the most likely near-term pattern is for additional consolidation. Elliott wave counts also favor additional non-trending action.
No comments:
Post a Comment