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Wednesday, April 25, 2007

Sterling Outlook (25th April 2007)

2.0060 offers kept a lid on cable in early European trade, as the USD came under across-the-board selling pressure. Further offers are touted at 2.0070, with some buy stops tipped above 2.0075. The latter orders could boost the rate towards 2.0100 if located. 2.0134 (last week's 26-year top) is an above-figure resistance level. Option barriers reside at 2.0150+.

2.0021 (yesterday's London morning high) is now a support point. Lower props include 2.0000, 1.9988 and 1.9955 (yesterday's one-week floor). Middle Eastern demand was noted sub-2.0000 yesterday, following a pullback from the post-US existing home sales data high of 2.0046. An option barrier is pegged at 1.9950.

Today's key US event risk is the 14:00GMT disclosure of March new home sales. Forecast: +5.0% m/m, at 890k. US March durable goods orders will be revealed at 12:30GMT. Forecast: +2.5% m/m, ex-transport +1.1% m/m. The Fed's Beige Book of regional economic conditions will be published at 18:00GMT.

News-wise: an RBS-led consortium has bid E72bn for ABN Amro, inclusive of a 70% cash element (FT website).

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