Today's downturn in Jun gold is consistent with bearish divergence readings on daily momentum studies noted in recent days. The near-retest of late Feb peak prices obviously could not get past $700 and was accompanied by weaker momentum.
Longer-term uptrends dating back to last Oct come in just below $655 Jun and are rising about $0.50/day. A test, though not necessarily in the cards, would not disturb the longer-term bullish chart setup in gold. Steeper trendlines from mid-March come in at just over $678 today and are rising by about $1.50/day.
In [oil], the market has seen a $3.50 range so far for the week, with the month-to-date range well inside that of last month's nearly $9 range. Daily momentum, while still in positive ground, peaked earlier this month and is heading lower. Daily trend models turned bearish yesterday, with more weakness needed to trigger Trend Intensity, a separate model, into a bearish signal.
Monthly charts show an unusually tight convergence of supports, with three projections in the $62.10-35 band, worth noting in the event of more downside work. RSI is approaching 40, with bulls best served if that momentum oscillator can hold above. Intraday resistance is as close at $63.90/64.05.
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