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Friday, April 13, 2007

Euro Outlook (13th April 2007)

Ahead of the weekend G7 meeting and the latest UBS risk aversion index has continued to tick south. Hitting -0.41, from -0.30 yesterday, the data highlights that risk appetite continues to increase. As a result so-called "growth" currencies are expected to remain bid at the expense of lower yielding units like the CHF and the Yen. Into European trading and EUR/USD remained supported as the Euro continued to be bought on the crosses.

Option barriers at 1.3550 have been targeted by bulls but thus far the combination of technical and gamma related supply has capped the move higher and 1.3546 marks the session and intraday highs. More barriers are seen into the 1.36 mark should the price break higher in NorAm trading while only a break below 1.3450 will take the pressure off the topside.

Looking ahead, a deluge of US data is set for release before the weekly close. 12:30 GMT sees the release of US February International Trade data and March PPI while at 14:00 GMT the latest Michigan release will keep the focus on the US economy and the potential for an impending recession.

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