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Saturday, April 28, 2007

Sterling Outlook (27th April 2007)

Tripped buy stops above 1.9950 helped cable push its recovery envelope from an early Europe 11-day low of 1.9866 to a late London morning high of 1.9963. Resistance levels above include 1.9980 (yesterday's NY session peak), 2.0000, 2.0014 (Thursday's Asian session base) and 2.0062 (double-day high, yesterday & Wednesday). A 2.0000 option strike rolls off at today's 14:00GMT NY cut. Option barriers are tipped at 2.0150+.

1.9923 (today's Asian session peak) is now a support point. Lower props include 1.9892 (yesterday's low) and 1.9866.

News-wise: Tony Blair is considering announcing his resignation as Labour leader before next Thursday's local elections, according to the Daily Telegraph. The SNP is on course to become the single largest party in the Scottish Parliament, according to a YouGov poll for the Telegraph. The SNP's manifesto promises a referendum on independence for Scotland.

Today's key event risk is the 12:30GMT advance estimate of US Q1 GDP. Forecast: +1.8% y/y, from +2.5% y/y in Q4.

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