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Tuesday, April 24, 2007

Swiss Outlook (24th April 2007)

Franc buy-backs accelerated as the European morning progressed and USD/CHF finally broke below 1.2075 support as EUR/CHF broke lower. The cross now eyes a run at 1.6350/55 technical support. Domestic dealers look to the 16:15 GMT speech from Hildebrand out of Zurich.

The SNB directorate member is set to speak on "considerations about the Swiss Franc's Exchange Rate" and should the central banker allude to more aggressive rate tightening then the CHF to rally further can be expected. Earlier Swiss trade data confirmed the continued above-trend growth in the mountain economy. However, it is the Friday KoF Leading Indicator that remains the key event-risk for the Swissie and a 2.00 headline is a viable outcome.

US data into North American trading will decide the fate of USD/CHF with Franc crosses likely to forced into bounces should the US unit rebound following the 14:00 GMT release of existing home sales and consumer confidence. USD/CHF currently eyes a drop back to the 1.2050 level, any break below here eyes a full retracement back to the April 19th low 2-pips shy of the 1.2000 mark.

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