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Thursday, April 12, 2007

Swiss Outlook (12th April 2007)

Into European trading and cross volatility kept USD/CHF looking elsewhere. Support into 1.2200 was absorbed and trading edged back towards 1.2180 bids but the failure of EUR/USD to break above 1.3480 left the price looking to bounce. Offers remain in play at 1.2215 while the topside needs a break above 1.2245/50 before opening further. However, it has been EUR/CHF that has been the center of attention.

The cross printed a fresh all-time high (at 1.6453) in early Asian trading as the option barriers at 1.6400 and 1.6450 were removed by solid buying from European names. However, the highs were soon rejected and the cross spent the European morning consolidating the drop towards 1.64 support. The pair has now moved 500-pips in 5-Weeks but 1.6500 is seen as the level where the SNB may draw the line.

US data is set for release into NorAm trading with Import and Export numbers for March set for release at 12:30 GMT. Economists in a recent survey forecast a 0.8% rise in imports and a 0.4% increase in exports. Following this March SpendingPulse retail sales data is set for release at 15:00 GMT.

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