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Wednesday, April 11, 2007

Swiss Outlook (11th April 2007)

European trading has seen offers in USD/CHF trailing back to 1.22 look to cap. One Swiss player tips some option related supply into the highs but as yet this has not prompted any 1.2200 expiry talk. 1.2197 sits as the session high but spot is back trading in the high 1.2180's. Elsewhere, EUR/CHF is encountering offers in the 1.6360's and the cross is yet to break into the 1.6370's.

Should trading break back above 1.6370 then a retracement back to the all-time highs at 1.6292 will be eyed. This could force USD/CHF into the 1.22's more sellers are seen into 1.2215/25. [GBP/CHF] traded as high as 2.4135 on the back of the Sterling positive repatriation news but the price is now consolidating near the high.

Looking ahead, before the 18:00 GMT double of the FOMC Minutes, from March 20th/21st, and the US Budget release, also for March, the market has the Lacker and Bernanke comments to negotiate (due at 16:45 and 17:00 GMT respectively). There is little due for release on the early run so the status-quo looks set to continue with only a break below 1.2145 altering the equilibrium.

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