Overall household spending is expected to ease back 0.5% in March after rising 1.4% in January and a further 0.2% in February, though this would still see it up 0.9% from a year ago, the third straight positive print. Spending by workers' households is expected stronger after a very poor result in February: IFR looks for a 2.0% rise after spending slumped 4.6% in February, the largest monthly decline since March 2004.
Against a year earlier, it is expected 1.4% higher, improving from a 2.7% fall in February. In trend terms, spending is rising gradually, though stronger gains in income have yet to translate into much of an acceleration in spending. Employment growth remains uncertain, jobs are expected to rise just 0.5% from a year ago in March, though recent gains in male employment should underpin firmer workers' household spending in coming months.
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