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Friday, April 06, 2007

Euro Outlook (6th April 2007)

After trading in a quiet range above between 1.3415 and 35 ahead of the US employment report, EUR/USD triggered stops below support at 1.3410 and 1.3380 support in short order after the US employment report surprised to the upside. Payrolls rose 180,000 while 36,000 jobs were added to the two prior month's data. The unemployment rate fell to 4.4%.

Prices dropped to the mid 1.3360s before the day was over, holding just above 1.3360 support and another crop of stop-loss orders just below. Today's US data further reinforces the notion that the Fed is on hold for the foreseeable future and that the economy, while slowing, is still in solid shape. The data supported the carry trades today on the notion that risk appetites should continue to rise amid upbeat data which will support equity markets.

EUR/JPY reached a fresh all-time high of 159.69. 1.3410/15 is now resistance on rallies in EUR/USD while 1.3320 is the near-term downside target early next week. Another thin day is expected Monday with much of Europe on holiday again.

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