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Wednesday, April 04, 2007

Yen Outlook (4th April 2007)

USD/JPY and other JPY pairs sold off a bit early on the back of Japanese exporters sales and profit-taking. USD/JPY backed away again after trading around 118.95 early. It fell to the 118.70 level, just shy of the 100-day moving average at 118.68 today. Bids are seen down to 118.60, 118.61 the New York low. Light stops are seen below but more bids are seen towards the London low of 118.20.

Larger stops are eyed below 118.10. Topside, offers remain in place ahead of presumed option barriers at 119.00. A mix of stops and offers are seen just above up to 119.20. More offers again are eyed from 119.30 to more barriers tipped at 119.50. A break above 119.00 in USD/JPY could be only a matter of time. Japanese investment interest is seen strong below with talk of buys from investment trusts, pension funds and even semi-governmental entities.

Flows from the latter are seen especially heavy after the end-April/early May Golden Week period. EUR/JPY traded similarly in a 158.10-65 range. AUD/JPY was on of the largest losers early on the RBA's decision to hold its cash rate at 6.25%. It traded down to 95.85 or so before bouncing.

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