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Thursday, May 10, 2007

Euro Outlook (10th May 2007)

At 11:45 GMT the ECB delivers their latest verdict on Euro Zone rates. However, the central bank is expected to leave rates on hold at 3.75% and once again it will be the accompanying press conference that drives the short-term volatility in EUR/USD. The post-decision conference kicks off at 12:30 GMT and the market awaits a Trichet rubber-stamp for a June 25bps hike.

Economists expect the ECB to signal such a move by stating the council will be "vigilant" on price risks, a key word typically used to indicate an imminent rate hike. The market may have priced in this result and for the Euro uptrend to remain in play some suggest the rate path beyond the June meeting may need to be touched upon given the slight hawkish-tone to the Fed overnight. The impending ECB event-risk has keep the EUR supported on dips intraday with Euro crosses also benefiting from renewed EUR buying.

EUR/USD rallied to re-test the 1.3565 level but the failure to push any higher soon resulted in a drop back to 1.3520 support. Central bank sellers are seen into 1.3570 with spot needing to outside the broader 1.35/36 range before further direction is found.

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