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Saturday, May 12, 2007

Swiss Outlook (11th May 2007)

Into Europe and USD/CHF pivoted the 1.22 mark with bids into 1.2190/95 propping overnight dips. However, these were soon filled as the Franc continued to elicit support and 1.2177 traded before the price managed to find fresh support. More bids are seen into 1.2155/65 while 1.2195/2200 should cap. Technically, [EUR/CHF] has turned bearish after the close below trend-line support at 1.6475 yesterday.

The 21-Day M/A line at 1.6447 now caps rallies and should a close below this level be seen the downside should come under further pressure into next week. Currently the cross trades at 1.6430 having bounced off 1.6415 support. More bids are seen into 1.6405 with 1.6455/60 expected to cap. Looking ahead, another deluge of US data is set to impact the Dollar ahead of the weekend with only a break below 1.2150 adding pressure on the US unit.

At 12:30 GMT April Producer Price data and Retail Sales numbers are set for release, economists currently look for +0.6% & +0.4% readings. Following this the Commerce Dept. issues March Business Inventories at 14:00 GMT with weekly ECRI data set for unveiling at 14:30 GMT.

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