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Friday, May 18, 2007

Euro Outlook (17th May 2007)

The EUR/USD opened around 1.3515 in Asia, just above the overnight low at 1.3505 and traded in a 1.3513/1.3532 range consolidating at the lower levels. EUR/JPY demand early on the soft Japanese GDP data supported the pairing and the price action died around midday, as investors wait for the European open.

There are offshore trader stops above 1.3540, with offers at 1.3570/85 likely to cap the bounce, while on the base there are bids at 1.3500, with stops below and 1.3465 is the major support, with stops building under this level. Many analytical pieces have been written in recent days suggesting that the worst has been seen for the U.S. data and that the economic numbers will improve, a view shared by the Fed, so the market seems far more influenced by good news than bad at present and this is developing it's own momentum, though the spectre of Central bank diversification demand remains in the background.

The EUR/JPY traded in a 163.21/55 range, slightly better bid on bargain hunting and the slightly softer Japanese GDP, while the EUR/CHF and the EUR/GBP traded very tight 1.6529/43 and 0.6838/42 ranges respectively.

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