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Saturday, May 12, 2007

Euro Outlook (11th May 2007)

Into the North American open and EUR/USD still trades near the 1.3475 point it has spent the day pivoting. Dealers continue to cite lacklustre trading and muted interest from the broader market while offers into the 1.3500/05 look to cap Euro stabs higher. However, thus far the price has struggled to even eke a push for 1.3490 as an eastern European continues to sell on strength.

Various interbank and fund names have sold in Europe but bids into 1.3465 prop ahead of 1.3450 support. Stops are seen below 1.3445 while on the topside stops are seen above 1.3520 and again on a break above 1.3540. Looking ahead, another deluge of US data is set to impact the Dollar ahead of the weekend with only a break below 1.3450 adding pressure on the EUR.

At 12:30 GMT April Producer Price data and Retail Sales numbers are set for release. Economists look for +0.6% & +0.4% readings. Following this the Commerce Dept. issues March Business Inventories at 14:00 GMT with weekly ECRI data set for unveiling at 14:30 GMT. Option traders note the 1.3485 expiry interest intraday with 1.3500 strikes also set to mature at the NY cut.

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