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Monday, May 21, 2007

Swiss Outlook (21st May 2007)

The Swiss Franc continues to move in a direction that is geographically opposite to the path local fundamentals suggest the unit should be moving. Overnight and the CHF has hit another all-time low against the Euro while USD/CHF broke above the 200-Day moving average line at 1.2320 amid the late European morning Dollar strength.

The two may not have occurred in tandem, in fact while EUR/CHF weakened USD/CHF traded steady around 1.2285 and when USD/CHF rallied EUR/CHF was pushed back below 1.6600, but the signals are there that the CHF continues to struggle under the global weight of the carry trade. EUR/CHF may have erased 1.66 option barriers, en-route to the new 1.6615 highs, but the cross failed to sustain the gains.

Domestic traders saw Swiss combined price data released today (April +0.9% M/M & +2.6% Y/Y) but their attentions are focused on the impending Swiss KoF Leading Indicator data due for release later this week. Local data also notes employment and trade balance data on the horizon while SNB member Jordan is scheduled to speak in Basel on Thursday.

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