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Friday, May 25, 2007

Euro Outlook (25th May 2007)

Into Friday and spot hit a 6-week low at 1.3412 in Asian trading as EUR/JPY sales weighed. Euro crosses across the board were impacted as aggressive US name sales were seen in Asia, however, option barriers at 1.3400 remained protected and as a result the downside looked fortified.

Into Europe and EUR/USD bounced but offers into the 1.3440's capped the topside to leave the downside in focus. Stops are noted above 1.3450 and again above 1.3460 but London dealers suggest that while spot trades sub-1.3475 it remains bearish. Looking ahead, the event-risk profile is generated by the 14:00 GMT existing home sales data (April) and the 14:30 GMT ECRI weekly index of economic activity (May 18th) release.

The slow data conclusion to the week could aid the Dollar and should the US unit strengthen into the weekend then the option barriers into 1.3400 will come back into focus. Dealers cite the 1.34/35 range as the new medium-term directional triggers but option traders note the expiries today at 1.3400, 50 & 1.3500 that could keep the spot market contained inside recent parameters into the NY cut at 14:00 GMT.

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